A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
