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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still